3/24/25-Replace Tim Cook🍎,Google's Porat🤩, Nvidia GTC Summary, 7 Powers 📘
If you don't invest for the long run you're sowing the seeds of your own destruction.
Welcome back. In a busy world we can be distracted with the trivial many things or we can focus on The Vital Few.
Something that I am thinking about
REPLACE Risk Averse Tim Cook 🍎
Tim Cook's leadership at Apple, while undeniably successful in maintaining profitability and operational efficiency, is frustratingly conservative compared to the more aggressive innovation strategies of Google, Meta, and Microsoft. Apple's focus on incremental improvements to existing product lines, rather than venturing into entirely new technological frontiers, reflects a risk-averse mindset. While Google pours resources into AI research and development, Meta explores AR/VR/XR, and Microsoft embraces cloud computing and AI/LLM integration, Apple's advancements primarily center on refining existing hardware and software, with limited forays into new technologies. This cautious strategy, while ensuring stability, can be seen as lacking the visionary boldness that once defined Apple under Steve Jobs.
Cook's incrementalism is further evidenced by Apple's slow adoption of emerging technologies. While competitors rapidly integrate AI into their products and services, Apple's approach remains more restrained, often prioritizing privacy concerns over cutting-edge features. Similarly, Apple's ventures into new product categories, like the Vision Pro, are characterized by a meticulous, almost hesitant approach, focusing on perfecting existing concepts rather than pioneering entirely new ones. This contrasts sharply with the "move fast and break things" ethos of companies like Meta and the rapid integration of AI across Microsoft's product suite. Moreover, no one can credibly challenge Cook’s control at Apple as he runs it with almost authoritarian control.
Ultimately, Tim Cook's risk-averse approach, while ensuring consistent financial performance, positions Apple as a follower rather than a leader in the rapidly evolving tech landscape. The company’s focus on maximizing profits from its established ecosystem, rather than aggressively pursuing disruptive innovation, will lead to missed opportunities in emerging markets and technologies. While Apple's products continue to be highly regarded, the company's lack of bold, transformative initiatives risks diminishing its long-term influence and relevance in the face of increasingly ambitious competitors. Steve Jobs would be disappointed with the future direction of 2025 and beyond under Tim Cook. ( AAPL 0.00%↑ , META 0.00%↑ , GOOG 0.00%↑ , MSFT 0.00%↑ )
[Apple and Berkshire also have a giant pile of cash problem😑. I wrote about BRK’s excess cash problems in my 8/2024 post, link here.]
Investing, Companies, Market Past/Future
(I invest in Companies, not in stocks.)
Interesting companies that hosted earnings results or information sessions since my last edition that I reviewed-
Technology- MU 0.00%↑ , NET 0.00%↑ , ORCL 0.00%↑
Housing / Banking - LEN 0.00%↑ , KBH 0.00%↑
(With data and charts it is not what you look at, it is what you see that matters.) Click on any of the images below to see a larger view.
Podcast
Alphabet President and CIO: Advancing AI, Quantum Computing, and Self-Driving Cars on In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen.
How is Google shaping our technological future? Join Nicolai Tangen in conversation with Ruth Porat, President and CIO of Alphabet and Google, as they explore AI, innovation, and the future of technology. Ruth is brilliant and one of my favorite finance people. 50 Min, Link Here
Emphasizing the need for long-term investment: "...if you don't invest for the long run you're sowing the seeds of your own destruction..." [15:12]
Sharing a lesson from the 2008 financial crisis: "...the most important lesson from the crisis is to identify your greatest source of vulnerability ahead of time and protect against it..." [37:04]
Video
Nvidia's GTC 2025 Keynote: Everything Announced in 16 Minutes
Nvidia CEO Jenson Huang delivered his annual keynote address at GTC 2025 AT The Sap Center in San Jose, California. Great summary. NVDA 0.00%↑
Books and Articles since my last edition
(Reading Great books is like a conversation with the finest minds of the past.- Descartes. If I get bored of a book I quit and move on.)
Henry J. Kaiser: Builder in the Modern American West by Mark S. Foster Biography, Business. This was a recommendation from the Collison brothers, Stripe founders. Henry Kaiser had about 7 careers, 🤯👏🏻.
Here is a link to many of the books I have read and my 1-5 star rating- Goodreads Books Read
Wild Card🃏
7 Powers by Hamilton Helmer
One of the absolute best mental models I have found to analyze a companies Qualitative factors is the book 7 Powers by Hamilton Helmer. Buy the book and add the teachings to your analysis process. Before I buy or re-underwrite a position, I put it through the 7 powers framework. (Visual Summary Below)
A company might have one power or multiple powers (the more the better.) But if a prospect company doesn’t have any powers, or there is a direct competitor with a higher ranking set of powers, beware.
Which of the 7 Powers does Target have? Nvidia Powers? McDonalds? TSMC?
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Disclaimer: All of my posts are for informational purposes only. I might own some of the companies discussed in these posts. This is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities discussed. Please do your own work before investing your money.
So who should lead Apple?