6/18/24-USA Experiment, Superintelligent AI 🎧, Data Center Tour 😲

“Drat, I have holes in my logic, I don’t understand bits and pieces."

Welcome back. In a busy world we can be distracted with the trivial many things or we can focus on The Vital Few.

Something that I am thinking about

The American Experiment

As earnings season has quieted down and the US independence day (July 4th) is coming up, I wanted to take a moment to think about the American Experiment. You might be like “EXPERIMENT, what is Nick talking about?🤷🏽‍♂️ America is NOT an experiment!” In 1790 George Washington (POTUS #1) said-

"The establishment of our new Government seemed to be the last great experiment for promoting human happiness."

A few things the Founding Fathers are testing- A Written Constitution, Power derived from the People, a Bill of Rights, Dividing power between a Federal government and individual States, Separate branches (Legislative, Executive, Judicial), and Checks and Balances between them all.

Humans tend to look at the recent past (1950’s, 70’s, 90’s, etc) and forecast a strong America into the future indefinitely. Are experimental nations stable? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Experiments aren’t finished, they can go wrong and the future outcome of the experiment is uncertain.

Some alternatives to Democracy (the people rule) include- Monarchy👑, Dictatorship😠, Authoritarianism, Anarchy⚠️.

The USA has been around since 1776, 248 years. Seems like a long time. How long do empires nations last? The table below from Samuel Cohn’s research and book was the summary I liked the best. I took the liberty to add the USA to the bottom in blue.

A couple of observations:

• Nations come to an end. (What? Clutch my pearls! 😲) Yes. From Rome to dynasties of China, they come and they go.

• Something comes AFTER, a new government (civilization) takes its place.

• The US has been around for ~250 years, but that is at the shorter end of the lifespans above.

How can we expand the number of years in our American Experiment? Participate, increase your productivity, listen to and tolerate one another, work together, learn a little more every day, and SHARE.

Trivia📎- George Washington’s residence, Mount Vernon, is 40 miles east of my home.

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Investing, Companies, Market Past/Future

(I invest in Companies, not in stocks.)

Interesting companies that hosted earnings results or information sessions since my last edition that I reviewed-

• Technology- ORCL 0.00%↑ , AVGO 0.00%↑ , CRWD 0.00%↑ , Snowflake Summit, Databricks Conference

• Housing- LEN 0.00%↑

(With data and charts it is not what you look at, it is what you see that matters.)

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Podcasts

Dangers of Superintelligent AI 🎧 2.2 hour, Roman Yampolskiy on the Lex Fridman Podcast. Roman is an AI safety researcher and he is brilliant 💡x2.

I enjoy technological development, robotics and the prospects of maturing AI. But computers are binary (Yes or No) and AI is therefore truthful. Right? Right??? Roman and Lex discuss, maybe NO❗ Maybe AI can and will lie to us😲. Roman-

..and they showed that existing models already showed successful deception in what they do. My concern is not that they lie now and we need to catch them and tell them “don't lie.”

My concern is that once they are capable and deployed, they will later change their mind because that's what unrestricted learning allows you to do.

Reminds me of two seminal characters on the subject, 1. HAL 9000 in 2001: A Space Odyssey, and 2. Ava in Ex Machina. [If you would like to read more about the subject of conscious AI, in my 2/2023 post I wrote about AI Breakout, link here.]

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Videos

30 Minute video, Data Center Tour & Technical Deep Dive into the Power, Data and Cooling Infrastructure! Guided tour by Tom Lawrence of Deft datacenter, learn about the power, cooling, and backup systems in place. Technical deep dive into how the centrifugal (flywheel) UPS works along with many other details that keep operations running smoothly. 🤔-AWS, MSFT, GOOG, NVDA, META

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Books and Articles since my last edition

(Books are like loading software on your brain. If I get bored of a book I quit and move on.)

• Black Edge: Inside Information, Dirty Money, and the Quest to Bring Down the Most Wanted Man on Wall Street by Sheelah Kolhatkar Nonfiction, Business. The story of billionaire trader Steven Cohen, the rise and fall of his hedge fund SAC Capital

• The Dead Zone by Stephen King Science Fiction. Although I don’t prefer horror, I am a Steven King fan and this had been on my reading list. First published in 1979. I enjoyed the read and found it entertaining.

Here is a link to many of the books I have read and my 1-5 star rating- Goodreads Books Read

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Wild Card🃏

Writing ✍🏼

Someone said (i forget who)-

Writing is often the process by which you realize that you do not understand what you are talking about.

When ever I read that I want to burst into laughter at myself. 😆🤣

Imagine you have to give a speech or attend a meeting on a specific subject. In order to prepare for the event our brain start to generate ideas, brainstorms and we scratch notes on the sketch pad between our ears🧠🧑🏽‍🦰. After some time has passed we are feeling pretty good about our ideas and virtual observations. It is tempting to stop at this point because our ego is pretty proud of itself.

Press on and force yourself to write out your thoughts on the topic as though you were talking to a curious 10 year old. Your explanations don’t have to be perfect but they do need to be organized, they can’t contradict one another and they can’t double back on themselves. Have you confused that clever kid?😕 When I arrive at this point of the process, I begin to think- “Drat, I have holes in my logic, I don’t understand bits and pieces. If I want to add value to the conversation, I have more research and thinking that I need to do.”

Writing is a gift that you can give to yourself. A gift of clarity, greater command of a subject, and often growing acknowledgement of the limits of your understanding.

Your goal at the end of your writing process should be for that imaginary 10 year old, often more critical and honest than an adult, to say “Okay, I get it. That is pretty cool.” After all, adults are just taller versions of curious 10 year olds.

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Disclaimer: All of my posts are for informational purposes only. I might own some of the companies discussed in these posts. This is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities discussed. Please do your own work before investing your money.