12/16/24-Either Uber Orš¤, N Peltz, Orin OāBrienš», Winnersšof Time
This is āeither orā thinking and it is classic lazy thinking.
Welcome back. In a busy world we can be distracted with the trivial many things or we can focus on The Vital Few.
Something that I am thinking about
Donāt think in āEither Orsā
Uber is down more than 23% in the last 60 days. What is the simple story that we all know is causing this? GMās Cruise is deadā ļø. Googleās Waymo is scaling up and has just announced its next expansion city, Miami, in 2026. UBER 0.00%ā , GOOG 0.00%ā Who is this Waymo future growth going to hurt? Easy, Uber (and Lyft.) Therefore sell Uber.š¬š¤
Not so fast. This is āeither orā thinking and it is classic lazy thinking. (I could even call it first order thinking) Uber CEO Dara is an experienced and talented operator. There are many more options beyond either one winner or another in dynamic adaptive markets. It could be Uber AND Waymo.
It could be mostly Uber and Waymo slowly joins the market at scale starting in 2027 with a 5 year scale up.
It could be Uber everywhere in the world and Waymo in the warm southern states of the USA.
Uber currently also delivers food to its customers, and I donāt think Waymoās autonomous cars are doing that just yet. š
It could be Uber and Waymo team up in the USA and Uber still dominates the rest of world, with a special focus on developing countries.
I think Uber currently works with something like 14 autonomous vehicle providers across the globe. While Waymo is amazing, it is not alone.
It could be many other scenarios over many different time lines.
Although this is not investment advice, I wanted to illustrate the opportunity to invest in Uber if an investor knew a lot about Uber and also felt that it is currently trading below its fair value and future prospects. Apply this thinking to other situations that you encounter. Markets are often right, but they frequently misprice individual stocks for short amounts of time.
I also wanted to point out your responsibility to think critically about a situation or trend. Listen to the finance media with a skeptical ear. If they were great investors, they would not be writing for news networks. When you hear investment media talking in terms of one or the other, either or thinking. Stop and ask, ācould this instead be an āANDā situation?ā Or will the predicted competitive trend take years or a decade to develop. One of your investment edges is your ability to think independently.
[If you are interested, I wrote about both Uber & Waymo 11/18/24 Here, and just Waymo 9/9/24 and 7/30/24. ]
Investing, Companies, Market Past/Future
(I invest in Companies, not in stocks.)
Interesting companies that hosted earnings results or information sessions since my last edition that I reviewed-
Technology- MDB 0.00%ā , ORCL 0.00%ā , AVGO 0.00%ā
Housing / Banking - TOL 0.00%ā
Others- COST 0.00%ā
(With data and charts it is not what you look at, it is what you see that matters.) Click on any of the images below to see a larger view.
Podcasts
Netflix- short documentary, THE ONLY GIRL IN THE ORCHESTRA, 30 min, Trailer LINK
We can all appreciate when we encounter a master. Perhaps an artist, a craftsman, or a professional with very high standards for themselves. Musician Orin OāBrien is clearly a master. Her performance is of course perfect, but also how she mentors students, and collaborates with others. Good is not good enough, she brings her BEST. I hope you enjoy her masterful example, I know I did. šš»
āTrailblazing double bassist Orin OāBrien never wanted the spotlight, but when Leonard Bernstein hired her in 1966 as the first female musician in the New York Philharmonic, it was inevitable that she would become the focus of much interest and fascination.
Now 87 years old and recently retired, Orin looks back on her remarkable life and career, insisting that a fuss should not be made, much preferring to play a supporting role to the family, students, friends, and colleagues that surround her.ā
[If you want to read about another master, I wrote about Dave Chapelle and his joke book on 1/16/24 here.]
Videos
Nelson Peltz, CEO & Founding Partner, of Trian Management, in conversation with Stuart Miller, CEO of homebuilder Lennar Corporation LEN 0.00%ā
Nelson Peltz (born 1942) is an American billionaire businessman and activist investor. He is non-executive chairman of Wendy's, Sysco, and The Madison Square Garden Company. He is a former director of H.J. Heinz Company, MondelÄz International, and Ingersoll Rand. Other companies he has a history with DIS 0.00%ā , Snapple, Quaker Oats, Cadbury, Kraft Foods, DuPont, PepsiCo, State Street, Procter & Gamble and Family Dollar. Peltz is also friends with finance genius Michael Milken , who knew š¤·š»āāļø. Nelson is a thoughtful person and we can learn from him. šš»
Books and Articles since my last edition
(Reading Great books is like a conversation with the finest minds of the past.- Descartes. If I get bored of a book I quit and move on.)
Amazon Unbound: Jeff Bezos and the Invention of a Global Empire by Brad Stone Business, Biography Donāt be overly influenced by Jeff Bezo smile and laugh, he is a task master.
Cuba by Stephen Coonts Fiction, Military
Here is a link to many of the books I have read and my 1-5 star rating- Goodreads Books Read
Wild Cardš
With More Free Time in the Future, How Will Humans Spend Itš¤
The average number of hours worked per week around the world is about 40. 8 hours per day for 5 days, or about 21 working days per month.
I have an Imagination Exercise for you- 5 Years in the future, 2030.. If the work week were to be cut from 40 hours down to 32 per week because of improved productivity gained from technology, virtual agents, robots, etc. Assume annual salaries do not decrease even though fewer hours are worked, salaries remain the same. How would humans spend the extra timeāāā³ available and which companies might stand to gain?
Entertainment and Media: Boosted demand for entertainment content, gaming, and virtual experiences. (Netflix, Disney, YouTube/Google, META Mixed Reality, EA Sports/Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo)
Technology and Innovation: Continued demand for technological advancements to drive productivity and efficiency. (MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, NVDA, TSMC)
Retail and E-commerce: Increased consumer spending on goods and services, especially those related to leisure and personal interests. (AMZN, SHOP, WMT)
Travel and Leisure: Extended vacations, exploring new places, and indulging in recreational activities. (ABNB, UBER, MTCH [Find your partner])
Entrepreneurship, Creative Pursuits and Side Hustles: Starting new businesses or pursuing passion projects. (SHOP, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, META)
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Disclaimer: All of my posts are for informational purposes only. I might own some of the companies discussed in these posts. This is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities discussed. Please do your own work before investing your money.